Things we have learned thus far #1 Passage planning in the Balearic sea

Lets start with weather. 

Doing my yacht master theory and coastal practical was back in 98 and 99. 

A long time ago. 

Sailing hols in the summer on the Med can lull you into a false sense of security. Short island hops, predictable Meltemi winds. Easy ports of refuge with plenty of options.

The Balearic sea is big compared to our channel hops and coastal cruises in the UK.

Plus the weather lore we had been brought up on was very much Polar Maritime orientated...with limited Azores high in the summer.

So, 'Buy-Ballots' law, Atlantic depression patterns and very limited sea breeze fronts of barely F2.or more.

These don't apply here. 

Yes - you get predictability of sorts with a Balearic low moving through Valencia bay - but classic fronts aren't always discernible.

There is an old adage that in the Med, there is too much wind or too little, and when it is just right, it's blowing in the wrong direction. ( (c) Rod Heikell, ad nauseam)

It very much proved so in the OLYPIC cruises.

We got used to multiple sources of weather and wind information. Sometimes too many.

Predict Wind is our go-to for hourly wind pattern behaviours - good (depending on the model) for 48 hours. It presents multiple models, including GFS, PWG and UKMO. As ever - beyond 36 hours these diverge - that is - if they agree in the first place. Human nature usually optimistically filters out the worst - and if two models agreed and was favourable - you'd think that was reliable. 

Our experience was the opposite. If in doubt - which is the worst picture and plan for that.

From a passage making approach - this often means planning on using the donk or expecting a motor-sail - then if the winds lay fair, so much the better. But if it might blow, and in the wrong direction - it invariably does.

We found these to be about 80% accurate for strength and usually 45degrees for wind direction - but very good for identifying sea/land breeze calms.

From a planning perspective - especially on the crossings, this means a Plan A, B and a C - often adapted underway when conditions shifted. 

What was pretty reliable was the Palma Rescue Coordination Radio broadcasts. (A bit like Solent Coastguard for the Balearics). Normally good for gale warnings, but you need to know your onions between the different channels, and Sea Areas (Cabrera, Menorcan, Balearic, Alboran etc) 

But like the UK coastguard Sea area and Inshores - about 80% reliable.

In reality - the sea area forecasts and longer journey plans drove our 'crossing' timings - whereas the joy of being retired boat-bums is that if the forecast was thundery showers and wind honking against where we generally wanted to go - then we could stay put, have a swim, fix things on the boat, read books and have vino with lunch. 

In terms of executing a plan - once you are underway and out of sight of land (and mobile signal for apps) you are old school again.

Clouds, crossed winds rules (IE are the clouds blowing in a different direction to surface winds) can give you a guide as to the stability - but the most reliable guide have been the barometers.

We have a digital one, that records the trends over the last 12 hours and a classic aneroid.

In practice:

When we did our last outbound from Tabarca to Ibiza, I watched the barometer drop 7mb in the course of an afternoon and into the night - so the Low we were chasing the tail of for a Sou'wester crossing was clearly going to freshen - despite what the raw data on Predictwind told us.

There was clearly a slow moving cold front, (hence the thundery showers and near gale to gale conditions). So whilst the gut told me - it will veer to the NW once it had passed - it was welcome to finally get a signal to confirm the timing - 6 to 9 hours from the gale itself.

So once you have got your head around coping with the conditions, then its about where you want to stop and how long you can stop there. This is the Plans A to C element.

Ibiza and Formentera aren't terribly large Islands. Formentera is roughly shaped like a child's fidget-spinner. Ibiza is roughly like a Rugby ball. 

Formentera offers shelter to SW, W and E'lys. It is exposed to the northern quadrant with a 10 mile fetch to build up a nasty chop.

Ibiza is a bit more crinkly than Formentera and with a few hours motoring or just coping with bumps and blows, there is somewhere you can tuck in and drop the hook. 

The bays can be large, meaning a swell can refract around a headland and make for an uncomfortable night.

At a push in Ibiza you can sail around half the island in one go for Shelter. So the Trip from Santa Eulalia to Portinatx is about 1/3rd of the way around the whole island. If you are 20 miles away and looking for shelter - its relatively easy to adjust your course and make for a bay.

So the reality of the planning has been balancing the conflicting weather sources online with Mk 1 eyeball and weather lore.  When we have been doing journeys of a distance and time such that a system can move through and the wind can box the compass - a handful of options in your back pocket helps. 

Especially if you decide you may need to change your plans at 3am, in a F7, with thundery rain, on deck, 10 miles off the cliffs of Formentera - with the lighthouse only partially visible in the rain.

A lonely place indeed.

Reflecting on the conditions this summer, however - out of OLYMPIC I and II we had a 2 storms of note, usually followed bay a day or so of grey conditions - pretty much aligned with a 'cold drop' common in the Balearic sea.  The rest of the time - it was stunning weather albeit with light airs or a breeze on the nose. We could count the days when we had the right wind, at a good pace in the right direction, on our fingers.

It has been said that the Solent is the best training ground due the tides, cold, wind and the chops of the channel - but the one storm we were out off the North coast was probably some of the toughest conditions forcing difficult decisions, that I have been in.

As for the distances; we have done the Cherbourg and Alderney runs multiple times - Torrevieja to Ibiza is roughly Hamble to St. Vaast and back again in one trip. 

You do need to do watch and watch dual handed. Truth be told you can normally do a sleepless night on your own if one of you is out of action.

Hot food before midnight helps, as does plenty of fluids and a flask of tea. 

None of this changes the fact that dawn on the Med in a blow looks as grey and forbidding as the Channel in November. 

You are just as sketchy. 

And cold.

Therefore the weather points do come into their own - its 36 hours you are planning for - the crossing and the recovery at anchor to sleep and eat a bacon sarnie.

So - in summary - the lesson has been pay attention to the weather - and have a plan B. The Med  is as cruel as the channel when she wants to be.